Grimm picks the Oscars
Our movie guy lambasts the snubs and predicts who should win vs. who will win
Yes, the crop of Oscar nominees this year is white. It’s very white. It’s inexcusably white. It’s snow sticking to Amanda Seyfried’s bare ass as she skydives naked through a fluffy cumulus cloud white.
Incidentally, FAA regulation 105.17 prohibits skydiving through any clouds due to visibility issues, so my little scenario involving Seyfried, although highly erotic and exciting, would result in arrests and/or deaths.
The Academy recently announced sweeping reforms to provide a better chance at diversity in its future nominations than what we’ve witnessed over the last few years. Mind you, I believe the best movies and performances should be nominated, regardless of ethnicity.
That said, my favorites came out at the beginning of the year, and there were quite a few glaring omissions in the nominees. I address them by category down below.
Most notably, two black actors got snubbed in the Best Actor category, men absolutely deserving of being nominated. At this point, it’s fair to say that a bad trend has emerged in the Academy’s nominating system, and I’m glad to see that they are making an effort to fix that.
So here are my Oscar predictions, and I fully expect you to play the Bob Grimm Oscar Drinking Game while you view. I want you to take a drink every time somebody says the word “the” or “phallus” during the ceremony, and I want you to use chocolate milk instead of alcohol. If you are lactose intolerant, I want you to eat a block of Muenster cheese instead. Yeah, it’s not a very good game, actually. It’s hard on the digestive system.Best Picture
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
This seems to really be a race between The Big Short, Spotlight and The Revenant. I think The Revenant has the combination of acting power and technical prowess to put it over the top. Plus, it has a really big bear. This would be the second year in a row a film directed by Alejandro Gonzaacute;lez Iñaacute;rritu takes the big prize (after Birdman last year).
Spotlight was the early favorite, and The Big Short just won the Producers Guild of America Award (usually a good Oscar predictor). I still think The Revenant will take it.
SNUBS: There were two slots that could’ve been filled with the likes of Beasts of No Nation, Steve Jobs or The Hateful Eight. (The Academy can nominate up to 10 films for Best Picture but usually falls short. I really don’t understand that.) Star Wars: The Force Awakens deserved a nod before the weak Bridge of Spies.
Should and will win: The RevenantBest Actor
Bryan Cranston (Trumbo)
Matt Damon (The Martian)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)
No doubt, it’s DiCaprio’s year, and it’s about time. I’m a big fan of Fassbender’s work, and Damon was a blast, but Leo is going home with the gold.
SNUBS: The Academy ignores Michael B. Jordan and his incredible Creed performance. They ignored him before for his equally amazing work in Fruitvale Station. I would have dropped Redmayne and Cranston from this list and replaced them with Jordan and Samuel L. Jackson’s career best work in The Hateful Eight.
Should and will win: DiCaprioBest Actress
Cate Blanchett (Carol)
Brie Larson (Room)
Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)
Charlotte Rampling (45 Years)
Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)
I liked Larson, but Ronan had the best and most consistent performance from this list. Early awards momentum shows Larson as the favorite. I thought Carol was OK, but a little overrated. Rampling was excellent in 45 Years, but I think it was last on the list for voters to watch. I love Jennifer Lawrence with all of my heart, and she did the best she could do with Joy despite being miscast.
SNUBS: I think Daisy Ridley was deserving of a nom for Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Like DiCaprio, she delivered a great physical performance, but unlike DiCaprio, she spoke a lot and brought great humor to an action role. (Not a dig on DiCaprio … just saying Ridley did a lot with her character.) Also, damn you, Academy, for ignoring the great Lily Tomlin’s work in Grandma!
Should win: Ronan
Will win: LarsonBest Supporting Actor
Christian Bale (The Big Short)
Tom Hardy (The Revenant)
Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)
Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
Stallone is just so damn good in Creed, even when the screenplay gets a little schmaltzy. It’s some sort of movie miracle that he’s made Rocky such a deep and compelling character again. That said, I wouldn’t cry if Hardy got the award over him. His work in The Revenant is mind blowing.
SNUBS: Lose Rylance and Bale from this category and replace them with Walton Goggins (The Hateful Eight), Jacob Tremblay (Room) or perhaps Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation). All three are more deserving.
Should and will win: StalloneBest Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)
Rooney Mara (Carol)
Rachel McAdams (Spotlight)
Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)
This is probably the toughest one to call. Vikander is getting a lot of early awards love, as are Winslet and Mara. For me, Leigh is the clear winner here, but I don’t think she stands a chance. My gut tells me that Winslet is the victor here.
SNUBS: I would drop Vikander for The Danish Girl and either nominate her for her Ex Machina performance or Elizabeth Banks for Love & Mercy.
Should win: Leigh
Will win: WinsletBest Animated Movie
Boy & the World
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie was There
Shaun the Sheep Movie and Inside Out were epically good, but Anomalisa was incredible, something beyond imaginative. I would love to see that one sneak in here, but I honestly think not enough Academy voters saw it. So, Pixar it is.
Should Win: Anomalisa
Will Win: Inside OutBest Director
Adam McKay (The Big Short)
George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
Alejandro G. Iñaacute;rritu (The Revenant)
Lenny Abrahamson (Room)
Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)
Iñaacute;rritu won the Directors Guild Award for the second year in a row, and he managed a great movie in the harshest of circumstances. If he wins the Oscar, he’ll be the first director to win two years in a row in the last 65 years.
SNUBS: Even though Creed just missed my top 10, a nod for Ryan Coogler would’ve been appropriate. He got an Oscar-worthy performance out of Stallone, one that deserved a nom from Jordan, and the boxing scenes are some of the best ever put to film.
Should and will win: Inarritu
Cinematography: The Revenant
Costume Design: Mad Max: Fury Road
Documentary: The Look of Silence
Documentary Short: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
Film Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road
Foreign Language: Son of Saul
Makeup and Hairstyling: Mad Max: Fury Road
Music score: The Hateful Eight
Best Song: “Simple Song #3” (Youth)
Production Design: Mad Max: Fury Road
Animated Short Film: Bear Story
Live Action Short Film: Shok
Sound Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road
Sound Mixing: Mad Max: Fury Road
Visual Effects: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short
Original Screenplay: Spotlight