Empty oceans?

A world without fish to eat by the middle of the century—that’s the very real possibility if human beings don’t change their ways, a group of fisheries experts and ecologists stated last week, in a report in the journal Science. The current issue of Time magazine also carries a story on the report, under the headline “Oceans of Nothing.”

The consequences of such a fisheries depletion would be staggering. Besides being a $71 billion industry, fishing provides the primary source of protein for more than a billion people, especially in developing countries.

Analyzing dozens of studies, along with fishing data collected by the UN’s Food and Agricultural Organization and other sources, the scientists projected current rates of depletion into the future and realized that the oceans would reach widespread collapse—meaning fisheries reduced to 10 percent of historic levels—by 2048.

Already, 29 percent of species have been fished so badly or so affected by pollution or habitat loss that they have collapsed, the report stated.

The good news? It’s not too late to turn the process around. If protected, fish species can rebound in time. Consumers can play a part by eating only sustainably harvested seafood (go to the Monterey Bay Aquarium Web site, mbayaq.org, for a list), and commercial fishers need to develop better practices. Currently, up to half the marine life caught in nets is discarded, often dead, as bycatch.

Yeah, we know, it’s hard enough to worry about global warming without adding the oceans to the list. And did somebody say “deforestation"? If the 20th century was the Time of Great Wars, the 21st century is shaping up as the Time of Great Challenges. We need to learn to live on this planet in an enduring way. There’s no choice.