Plotting the race
The New York Times recently ran an article (“Electoral Map a Reality Check,” April 2) backing up my thoughts of a few weeks ago, that Trump’s popularity, or lack of it, with critical voting blocs like blacks, browns, white women and now independents will pretty much guarantee that the Republicans will lose the presidential election the second they dare to nominate the guy. The truth of modern voting numbers is that there just aren’t enough kooked-up white wankers voting for Trump to overcome these lopsided blowouts in key demographics.
The writing is on the wall, and it’s big enough and bright enough so even the squinty-eyed honchos of the GOP can read it. So you know what? Sometime in April or May, Don’s gonna bail. Yep. He’s gonna drop out. Hell, he’s gotta put in some time on the range to get ready for the club championship at Mar y Lago! He can’t be messin’ around with all this presidential monkey business.
All this stuff swirls around about Bernie being “unelectable.” Come on, now! What a load of stinky bleep. If the Cranky Yankee is so unelectable, why is he leading Trump in every recent head-to-head poll? Seven recent surveys, all taken in late March, had Bernie beating Don with the average margin being 15 points! So, please, enough with this particular brand of Bernie baloney. His toughest fight is going on right now, and as I write he’s very likely going to win in Wisconsin which means he’s winning caucuses and primaries all over the joint, and I realize Hillary does indeed have some gigantic edge when you factor in all this superdelegate mumbo jumbo, but lately, she simply can’t beat Bernie anywhere, so I’m not handing anything to anybody cuz this thing still looks to be seriously on.
Getting back to that recent flurry of head-to-head polls, what they show is that El Donaldo is the least worthy GOP choice in terms of giving the Dems a serious run. Now, of course, at this stage of the game, all polls must be taken with multiple grains of salt (I often wonder how many respondents are deliberately giving bogus responses), but you scrape a few of them together and you get a decent sample that gives you a reasonable clue as to current realities. So the big current takeaways are (1) both Bernie and Hillary can thump Trump by double digits, (2) Bernie does better against Cruz than Hillary, who beats Ted by only about 3 points, (3) and Kasich is actually the strongest of the three GOP players, as these polls show him beating both Bernie and Hillary! In fact, the polls consistently show Kasich beating Hillary by 5-7 points, while things would be tighter and within sampling errors with Kasich/Sanders. The conclusion—strap on your crash helmet. Sharp turns ahead. Enjoy the show. Embrace the weirdness. Wacky shit in your mirror may be closer than it appears.