Not so easy

Analyst Nate Silver had a sobering Jan. 10 message for Democrats, including Nevada Democrats. He examined the race-by-race Senate rankings around the country of experts like the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections1 and Sabato’s Crystal Ball.

“If you add the probabilities for each race together, you’ll find that these ratings have Democrats losing an average of about three Senate seats next year,” he wrote. “An optimistic Democrat might note that all the races the party needs to win control of the Senate—that is, all of their own seats, plus the Republican-held ones in Arizona and Nevada—are nevertheless listed as toss-ups or better for Democrats. But that doesn’t mean their overall chances of winning the Senate are 50-50. Unless Democrats unexpectedly put another seat, such as Tennessee, into play, they’d have to win all of the four toss-ups (Arizona, Indiana, Missouri and Nevada), plus a number of other races in which they’re listed as only marginal favorites (such as West Virginia and Florida).”