A Wall Street Journal poll has John Kerry in the lead in Nevada, helping give Kerry a national electoral-vote lead.
Ever since George W. Bush was appointed president by party electors instead of elected by voters, pollsters have paid more attention to where votes are distributed in the nation. Zogby International has done regular polls for the Journal, and the newspaper has weighted them for electoral votes. To the votes for Bush and Kerry in the safe states, the Journal reports, “we add the electoral votes from the latest poll, regardless of the margins of error or the spread between the candidates. Mr. Kerry’s 13 states have 150 electoral votes, while Mr. Bush’s three have 27 votes. The bottom line: Mr. Kerry would have 322 electoral votes and the president would have 216. …”
This represents a net gain for Kerry of Nevada and Ohio.
The Journal notes that because of the razor-thin numbers, differing polls can find different results: “[W]hile Zogby finds Mr. Kerry up by one point in Nevada, a SurveyUSA poll has Mr. Bush ahead by four points.”
The Zogby poll in Nevada was taken after the first debate but before the vice presidential or the second presidential debate.