Predicting the president
Did you know there’s a futures market in predicting political races and other events? Anyone can log on to www.intrade.com and buy or sell shares based on what he or she thinks is going to happen down the road. Will Nawaz Sharrif become prime minister of Pakistan? Who will be the next Italian prime minister? And—the biggie these days—who will win the U.S. presidential election? Last week’s primaries in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island gave Hillary Clinton a much-needed predictive boost, but when it comes to delegates Barack Obama is still the frontrunner in the Democratic race. Here are the most recent figures on the Intrade Prediction Market.
Probability of victory
<style type="text/css"> </style>| 2 weeks ago | Last week | Change % | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton to be next president | 9.0 | 17.7 | +8.7 | 96.7 |
| Obama to be next president | 55.4 | 48.0 | -7.4 | 13.4 |
| McCain to be next president | 34.7 | 38.0 | +3.3 | 9.5 |
| Clinton to be Dem. nominee | 16.5 | 29.5 | +13.0 | 78.8 |
| Obama to be Dem. nominee | 83.5 | 73.6 | -9.9 | 11.9 |
| Wesley Clark to be Dem. veep nominee | 10.0 | 6.4 | -3.6 | 36.0 |
| Richardson to be Dem. veep nominee | 5.5 | 5.1 | -0.4 | 7.3 |
| Pawlenty to be Rep. veep nominee | 20.4 | 22.7 | +2.3 | 11.1 |
| Next president to be a Republican | 35.0 | 37.7 | +2.7 | 7.7 |
| U.S. to go into recession in 2008 | 63.5 | 59.0 | -4.5 | 7.1 |
Source: www.intrade.com.
More Local Stories » Sifter
Hey, big spender
U.S. military spending blows the rest of the world out of the water.
Published on 02.28.08
So close, but so far away
Long-distance relationships are more common than you’d think.
Published on 02.14.08
Money on the mind
Organizing personal finances isn’t at the top of most Americans’ to-do lists.
Published on 02.07.08